Coral restoration can drive rapid reef carbonate budget recovery.

Restoration is increasingly seen as a necessary tool to reverse ecological decline across terrestrial and marine ecosystems.1,2 Considering the unprecedented loss of coral cover and associated reef ecosystem services, active coral restoration is gaining traction in local management strategies and has recently seen major increases in scale. However, the extent to which coral restoration may restore key reef functions is poorly understood.3,4 Carbonate budgets, defined as the balance between calcium carbonate production and erosion, influence a reef's ability to provide important geo-ecological functions including structural complexity, reef framework production, and vertical accretion.5 Here we present the first assessment of reef carbonate budget trajectories at restoration sites. The study was conducted at one of the world's largest coral restoration programs, which transplants healthy coral fragments onto hexagonal metal frames to consolidate degraded rubble fields.6 Within 4 years, fast coral growth supports a rapid recovery of coral cover (from 17% ± 2% to 56% ± 4%), substrate rugosity (from 1.3 ± 0.1 to 1.7 ± 0.1) and carbonate production (from 7.2 ± 1.6 to 20.7 ± 2.2 kg m-2 yr-1). Four years after coral transplantation, net carbonate budgets have tripled and are indistinguishable from healthy control sites (19.1 ± 3.1 and 18.7 ± 2.2 kg m-2 yr-1, respectively). However, taxa-level contributions to carbonate production differ between restored and healthy reefs due to the preferential use of branching corals for transplantation. While longer observation times are necessary to observe any self-organization ability of restored reefs (natural recruitment, resilience to thermal stress), we demonstrate the potential of large-scale, well-managed coral restoration projects to recover important ecosystem functions within only 4 years.

Temperature, species identity and morphological traits predict carbonate excretion and mineralogy in tropical reef fishes.

Anthropogenic pressures are restructuring coral reefs globally. Sound predictions of the expected changes in key reef functions require adequate knowledge of their drivers. Here we investigate the determinants of a poorly-studied yet relevant biogeochemical function sustained by marine bony fishes: the excretion of intestinal carbonates. Compiling carbonate excretion rates and mineralogical composition from 382 individual coral reef fishes (85 species and 35 families), we identify the environmental factors and fish traits that predict them. We find that body mass and relative intestinal length (RIL) are the strongest predictors of carbonate excretion. Larger fishes and those with longer intestines excrete disproportionately less carbonate per unit mass than smaller fishes and those with shorter intestines. The mineralogical composition of excreted carbonates is highly conserved within families, but also controlled by RIL and temperature. These results fundamentally advance our understanding of the role of fishes in inorganic carbon cycling and how this contribution will change as community composition shifts under increasing anthropogenic pressures.

Structure-from-motion photogrammetry demonstrates variability in coral growth within colonies and across habitats.

Coral growth is an important metric of coral health and underpins reef-scale functional attributes such as structural complexity and calcium carbonate production. There persists, however, a paucity of growth data for most reef-building regions, especially for coral species whose skeletal architecture prevents the use of traditional methods such as coring and Alizarin staining. We used structure-from-motion photogrammetry to quantify a range of colony-scale growth metrics for six coral species in the Mexican Caribbean and present a newly developed workflow to measure colony volume change over time. Our results provide the first growth metrics for two species that are now major space occupiers on Caribbean reefs, Agaricia agaricites and Agaricia tenuifolia. We also document higher linear extension, volume increase and calcification rates within back reef compared to fore reef environments for four other common species: Orbicella faveolata, Porites astreoides, Siderastrea siderea and Pseudodiploria strigosa. Linear extension rates in our study were lower than those obtained via computed tomography (CT) scans of coral cores from the same sites, as the photogrammetry method averages growth in all dimensions, while the CT method depicts growth only along the main growth axis (upwards). The comparison of direct volume change versus potential volume increase calculated from linear extension emphasizes the importance of assessing whole colony growth to improve calcification estimates. The method presented here provides an approach that can generate accurate calcification estimates alongside a range of other whole-colony growth metrics in a non-invasive way.

The importance of 1.5°C warming for the Great Barrier Reef.

Tropical coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change and will benefit from the more ambitious aims of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's Paris Agreement, which proposed to limit global warming to 1.5° rather than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Only in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change focussed assessment, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), have climate models been used to investigate the 1.5° warming scenario directly. Here, we combine the most recent model updates from CMIP6 with a semi-dynamic downscaling to evaluate the difference between the 1.5 and 2°C global warming targets on coral thermal stress metrics for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). By ~2080, severe bleaching events are expected to occur annually under intensifying emissions (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5). Adherence to 2° warming (SSP1-2.6) halves this frequency but the main benefit of confining warming to 1.5° (SSP1-1.9) is that bleaching events are reduced further to 3 events per decade. Attaining low emissions of 1.5° is also paramount to prevent the mean magnitude of thermal stress from stabilizing close to a critical thermal threshold (8 Degree Heating Weeks). Thermal stress under the more pessimistic pathways SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 is three to fourfold higher than the present day, with grave implications for future reef ecosystem health. As global warming continues, our projections also indicate more regional warming in the central and southern GBR than the far north and northern GBR.

Quantifying production rates and size fractions of parrotfish-derived sediment: A key functional role on Maldivian coral reefs.

Coral reef fish perform numerous important functional roles on coral reefs. Of these, carbonate sediment production, as a by-product of parrotfish feeding, is especially important for contributing to reef framework construction and reef-associated landform development. However, only limited data exist on: (i) how production rates vary among reef habitats as a function of parrotfish assemblages, (ii) the relative importance of sediment produced from eroded, reworked, and endogenous sources, or (iii) the size fractions of sediment generated by different parrotfish species and size classes. These parameters influence not only overall reef-derived sediment supply, but also influence the transport potential and depositional fate of this sedimentary material. Here, we show that parrotfish sediment production varies significantly between reef-platform habitats on an atoll-margin Maldivian reef. Highest rates of production (over 0.8 kg m-2 year-1) were calculated in three of the eight platform habitats; a rubble-dominated zone, an Acropora spp. dominated zone, and a patch reef zone. Habitat spatial extent and differences in associated parrotfish assemblages strongly influenced the total quantities of sediment generated within each habitat. Nearly half of total parrotfish sediment production occurred in the rubble habitat, which comprised only 8% of the total platform area. Over 90% of this sedimentary material originated from eroded reef framework as opposed to being reworked existing or endogenously produced sediment, and comprised predominantly coral sands (predominantly 125-1000 µm in diameter). This is comparable to the dominant sand types and size fractions found on Maldivian reef islands. By contrast, nearly half of the sediment egested by parrotfish in the Acropora spp. dominated and patch reef habitats resulted from reworked existing sediments. These differences between habitats are a result of the different parrotfish assemblages supported. Endogenous carbonate production was found to be insignificant compared to the quantity of eroded and reworked material. Our findings have important implications for identifying key habitats and species which act as major sources of sediment for reef-island systems.

Calcium carbonate production in the southernmost subtropical Atlantic coral reef.

Emerging evidence have been supporting the idea that the better known South Atlantic coral reefs (located between 18°S and 24°S) are now essentially senescent structures that have experienced little or no additional vertical reef growth over the past millennia. This has often coincided with a shift to a dominance of non-coral calcifying organisms becoming the main CaCO3 producers in these high latitude and marginal marine settings. Here, we used Calcification Accretion Units (CAUs) and census-based methods to measure non-coral rates of CaCO3 production on the geologically senescent reef and adjacent rhodolith beds within the southernmost subtropical Atlantic reef (i.e., Queimada Grande Reef, QGR). The reef habitat is currently producing CaCO3 at rates of ∼126 g m-2 yr-1. In contrast, fragments of dead corals skeletons deposited adjacent to the reef over the last ∼2000 years are now colonized by crustose coralline red algae. These form a rhodolith bed that produces CaCO3 at rates of 858 g m-2 yr-1. Our results indicate that, whilst not sufficient to promote active net framework accumulation, CaCO3 production by coralline algae and bryozoans on the QGR appears to be sufficient to at least limit net large-scale erosion of the underlying reef structure, allowing the reef structure to persist in a state close to budgetary stasis. Finally, our results are also of relevance for providing insights regarding the balance of CaCO3 production/dissolution/erosion processes in coral reefs, especially in these less understood marginal reefs.

Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming.

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.

Two decades of carbonate budget change on shifted coral reef assemblages: are these reefs being locked into low net budget states?

The ecology of coral reefs is rapidly shifting from historical baselines. One key-question is whether under these new, less favourable ecological conditions, coral reefs will be able to sustain key geo-ecological processes such as the capacity to accumulate carbonate structure. Here, we use data from 34 Caribbean reef sites to examine how the carbonate production, net erosion and net carbonate budgets, as well as the organisms underlying these processes, have changed over the past 15 years in the absence of further severe acute disturbances. We find that despite fundamental benthic ecological changes, these ecologically shifted coral assemblages have exhibited a modest but significant increase in their net carbonate budgets over the past 15 years. However, contrary to expectations this trend was driven by a decrease in erosion pressure, largely resulting from changes in the abundance and size-frequency distribution of parrotfishes, and not by an increase in rates of coral carbonate production. Although in the short term, the carbonate budgets seem to have benefitted marginally from reduced parrotfish erosion, the absence of these key substrate grazers, particularly of larger individuals, is unlikely to be conducive to reef recovery and will thus probably lock these reefs into low budget states.

Projections of coral cover and habitat change on turbid reefs under future sea-level rise.

Global sea-level rise (SLR) is projected to increase water depths above coral reefs. Although the impacts of climate disturbance events on coral cover and three-dimensional complexity are well documented, knowledge of how higher sea levels will influence future reef habitat extent and bioconstruction is limited. Here, we use 31 reef cores, coupled with detailed benthic ecological data, from turbid reefs on the central Great Barrier Reef, Australia, to model broad-scale changes in reef habitat following adjustments to reef geomorphology under different SLR scenarios. Model outputs show that modest increases in relative water depth above reefs (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) over the next 100 years will increase the spatial extent of habitats with low coral cover and generic diversity. More severe SLR (RCP8.5) will completely submerge reef flats and move reef slope coral communities below the euphotic depth, despite the high vertical accretion rates that characterize these reefs. Our findings suggest adverse future trajectories associated with high emission climate scenarios which could threaten turbid reefs globally and their capacity to act as coral refugia from climate change.

Bleaching-driven reef community shifts drive pulses of increased reef sediment generation.

The ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef communities are well documented, but resultant impacts upon reef-derived sediment supply are poorly quantified. This is an important knowledge gap because these biogenic sediments underpin shoreline and reef island maintenance. Here, we explore the impacts of the 2016 bleaching event on sediment generation by two dominant sediment producers (parrotfish and Halimeda spp.) on southern Maldivian reefs. Our data identifies two pulses of increased sediment generation in the 3 years since bleaching. The first occurred within approximately six months after bleaching as parrotfish biomass and resultant erosion rates increased, probably in response to enhanced food availability. The second pulse occurred 1 to 3 years post-bleaching, after further increases in parrotfish biomass and a major (approx. fourfold) increase in Halimeda spp. abundance. Total estimated sediment generation from these two producers increased from approximately 0.5 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 (pre-bleaching; 2016) to approximately 3.7 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 (post-bleaching; 2019), highlighting the strong links between reef ecology and sediment generation. However, the relevance of this sediment for shoreline maintenance probably diverges with each producer group, with parrotfish-derived sediment a more appropriate size fraction to potentially contribute to local island shorelines.

Extreme spatial heterogeneity in carbonate accretion potential on a Caribbean fringing reef linked to local human disturbance gradients.

The capacity of coral reefs to maintain their structurally complex frameworks and to retain the potential for vertical accretion is vitally important to the persistence of their ecological functioning and the ecosystem services they sustain. However, datasets to support detailed along-coast assessments of framework production rates and accretion potential do not presently exist. Here, we estimate, based on gross bioaccretion and bioerosion measures, the carbonate budgets and resultant estimated accretion rates (EAR) of the shallow reef zone of leeward Bonaire - between 5 and 12 m depth - at unique fine spatial resolution along this coast (115 sites). Whilst the fringing reef of Bonaire is often reported to be in a better ecological condition than most sites throughout the wider Caribbean region, our data show that the carbonate budgets of the reefs and derived EAR varied considerably across this ~58 km long fringing reef complex. Some areas, in particular the marine reserves, were indeed still dominated by structurally complex coral communities with high net carbonate production (>10 kg CaCO3  m-2  year-1 ), high live coral cover and complex structural topography. The majority of the studied sites, however, were defined by relatively low budget states (<2 kg CaCO3  m-2  year-1 ) or were in a state of net erosion. These data highlight the marked spatial heterogeneity that can occur in budget states, and thus in reef accretion potential, even between quite closely spaced areas of individual reef complexes. This heterogeneity is linked strongly to the degree of localized land-based impacts along the coast, and resultant differences in the abundance of reef framework building coral species. The major impact of this variability is that those sections of reef defined by low-accretion rates will have limited capacity to maintain their structural integrity and to keep pace with current projections of climate change induced sea-level rise (SLR), thus posing a threat to reef functioning and biodiversity, potentially leading to trophic cascades. Since many Caribbean reefs are more severely degraded than those found around Bonaire, it is to be expected that the findings presented here are rather the rule than the exception, but the study also highlights the need for similar high spatial resolution (along-coast) assessments of budget states and accretion rates to meaningfully explore increasing coastal risk at the country level. The findings also more generally underline the significance of reducing local anthropogenic disturbance and restoring framework building coral assemblages. Appropriately focussed local preservation efforts may aid in averting future large-scale above reef water depth increases on Caribbean coral reefs and will limit the social and economic implications associated with the loss of reef goods and services.

Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Phase heterogeneity in carbonate production by marine fish influences their roles in sediment generation and the inorganic carbon cycle.

Marine teleost fish are important carbonate producers in neritic and oceanic settings. However, the fates of the diverse carbonate phases (i.e., mineral and amorphous forms of CaCO3) they produce, and their roles in sediment production and marine inorganic carbon cycling, remain poorly understood. Here we quantify the carbonate phases produced by 22 Bahamian fish species and integrate these data with regional fish biomass data from The Bahamas to generate a novel platform-scale production model that resolves these phases. Overall carbonate phase proportions, ordered by decreasing phase stability, are: ~20% calcite, ~6% aragonite, ~60% high-Mg calcite, and ~14% amorphous carbonate. We predict that these phases undergo differing fates, with at least ~14% (amorphous carbonate) likely dissolving rapidly. Results further indicate that fisheries exploitation in The Bahamas has potentially reduced fish carbonate production by up to 58% in certain habitats, whilst also driving a deviation from natural phase proportions. These findings have evident implications for understanding sedimentary processes in shallow warm-water carbonate provinces. We further speculate that marked phase heterogeneity may be a hitherto unrecognised feature of fish carbonates across a wide range of neritic and oceanic settings, with potentially major implications for understanding their role in global marine inorganic carbon cycling.

Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories.

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term maintenance of coral-dominated tropical ecosystems, and has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Coral bleaching and associated mortality events, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense, can alter the balance of different elements that are responsible for coral reef growth and maintenance. The geomorphic impacts of coral mass mortality have received relatively little attention, particularly questions concerning temporal recovery of reef carbonate production and the factors that promote resilience of reef growth potential. Here, we track the biological carbonate budgets of inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014, spanning the 1998 global bleaching event when these reefs lost more than 90% of coral cover. All 21 reefs had positive budgets in 1994, but in 2005 budgets were predominantly negative. By 2014, carbonate budgets on seven reefs were comparable with 1994, but on all reefs where an ecological regime shift to macroalgal dominance occurred, budgets remained negative through 2014. Reefs with higher massive coral cover, lower macroalgae cover and lower excavating parrotfish biomass in 1994 were more likely to have positive budgets post-bleaching. If mortality of corals from the 2016 bleaching event is as severe as that of 1998, our predictions based on past trends would suggest that six of eight reefs with positive budgets in 2014 would still have positive budgets by 2030. Our results highlight that reef accretion and framework maintenance cannot be assumed from the ecological state alone, and that managers should focus on conserving aspects of coral reefs that support resilient carbonate budgets.

Evidence of extensive reef development and high coral cover in nearshore environments: implications for understanding coral adaptation in turbid settings.

Mean coral cover has reportedly declined by over 15% during the last 30 years across the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Here, we present new data that documents widespread reef development within the more poorly studied turbid nearshore areas (<10 m depth), and show that coral cover on these reefs averages 38% (twice that reported on mid- and outer-shelf reefs). Of the surveyed seafloor area, 11% had distinct reef or coral community cover. Although the survey area represents a small subset of the nearshore zone (15.5 km(2)), this reef density is comparable to that measured across the wider GBR shelf (9%). We also show that cross-shelf coral cover declines with distance from the coast (R(2) = 0.596). Identified coral taxa (21 genera) exhibited clear depth-stratification, corresponding closely to light attenuation and seafloor topography, with reefal development restricted to submarine antecedent bedforms. Data from this first assessment of nearshore reef occurrence and ecology measured across meaningful spatial scales suggests that these coral communities may exhibit an unexpected capacity to tolerate documented declines in water quality. Indeed, these shallow-water nearshore reefs may share many characteristics with their deep-water (>30 m) mesophotic equivalents and may have similar potential as refugia from large-scale disturbances.

Remote coral reefs can sustain high growth potential and may match future sea-level trends.

Climate-induced disturbances are contributing to rapid, global-scale changes in coral reef ecology. As a consequence, reef carbonate budgets are declining, threatening reef growth potential and thus capacity to track rising sea-levels. Whether disturbed reefs can recover their growth potential and how rapidly, are thus critical research questions. Here we address these questions by measuring the carbonate budgets of 28 reefs across the Chagos Archipelago (Indian Ocean) which, while geographically remote and largely isolated from compounding human impacts, experienced severe (>90%) coral mortality during the 1998 warming event. Coral communities on most reefs recovered rapidly and we show that carbonate budgets in 2015 average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, the corals most severely impacted in 1998, averaged +8.4 G by 2015, comparable with estimates under pre-human (Holocene) disturbance conditions. These positive budgets are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr(-1)) on Acropora-dominated reefs, demonstrating that carbonate budgets on these remote reefs have recovered rapidly from major climate-driven disturbances. Critically, these reefs retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100.

Regional-scale dominance of non-framework building corals on Caribbean reefs affects carbonate production and future reef growth.

Coral cover on Caribbean reefs has declined rapidly since the early 1980's. Diseases have been a major driver, decimating communities of framework building Acropora and Orbicella coral species, and reportedly leading to the emergence of novel coral assemblages often dominated by domed and plating species of the genera Agaricia, Porites and Siderastrea. These corals were not historically important Caribbean framework builders, and typically have much smaller stature and lower calcification rates, fuelling concerns over reef carbonate production and growth potential. Using data from 75 reefs from across the Caribbean we quantify: (i) the magnitude of non-framework building coral dominance throughout the region and (ii) the contribution of these corals to contemporary carbonate production. Our data show that live coral cover averages 18.2% across our sites and coral carbonate production 4.1 kg CaCO3  m(-2)  yr(-1) . However, non-framework building coral species dominate and are major carbonate producers at a high proportion of sites; they are more abundant than Acropora and Orbicella at 73% of sites; contribute an average 68% of the carbonate produced; and produce more than half the carbonate at 79% of sites. Coral cover and carbonate production rate are strongly correlated but, as relative abundance of non-framework building corals increases, average carbonate production rates decline. Consequently, the use of coral cover as a predictor of carbonate budget status, without species level production rate data, needs to be treated with caution. Our findings provide compelling evidence for the Caribbean-wide dominance of non-framework building coral taxa, and that these species are now major regional carbonate producers. However, because these species typically have lower calcification rates, continued transitions to states dominated by non-framework building coral species will further reduce carbonate production rates below 'predecline' levels, resulting in shifts towards negative carbonate budget states and reducing reef growth potential.

Changing dynamics of Caribbean reef carbonate budgets: emergence of reef bioeroders as critical controls on present and future reef growth potential.

Coral cover has declined rapidly on Caribbean reefs since the early 1980s, reducing carbonate production and reef growth. Using a cross-regional dataset, we show that widespread reductions in bioerosion rates-a key carbonate cycling process-have accompanied carbonate production declines. Bioerosion by parrotfish, urchins, endolithic sponges and microendoliths collectively averages 2 G (where G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)) (range 0.96-3.67 G). This rate is at least 75% lower than that reported from Caribbean reefs prior to their shift towards their present degraded state. Despite chronic overfishing, parrotfish are the dominant bioeroders, but erosion rates are reduced from averages of approximately 4 to 1.6 G. Urchin erosion rates have declined further and are functionally irrelevant to bioerosion on most reefs. These changes demonstrate a fundamental shift in Caribbean reef carbonate budget dynamics. To-date, reduced bioerosion rates have partially offset carbonate production declines, limiting the extent to which more widespread transitions to negative budget states have occurred. However, given the poor prognosis for coral recovery in the Caribbean and reported shifts to coral community states dominated by slower calcifying taxa, a continued transition from production to bioerosion-controlled budget states, which will increasingly threaten reef growth, is predicted.

Avoiding coral reef functional collapse requires local and global action.

Coral reefs face multiple anthropogenic threats, from pollution and overfishing to the dual effects of greenhouse gas emissions: rising sea temperature and ocean acidification. While the abundance of coral has declined in recent decades, the implications for humanity are difficult to quantify because they depend on ecosystem function rather than the corals themselves. Most reef functions and ecosystem services are founded on the ability of reefs to maintain their three-dimensional structure through net carbonate accumulation. Coral growth only constitutes part of a reef's carbonate budget; bioerosion processes are influential in determining the balance between net structural growth and disintegration. Here, we combine ecological models with carbonate budgets and drive the dynamics of Caribbean reefs with the latest generation of climate models. Budget reconstructions using documented ecological perturbations drive shallow (6-10 m) Caribbean forereefs toward an increasingly fragile carbonate balance. We then projected carbonate budgets toward 2080 and contrasted the benefits of local conservation and global action on climate change. Local management of fisheries (specifically, no-take marine reserves) and the watershed can delay reef loss by at least a decade under "business-as-usual" rises in greenhouse gas emissions. However, local action must be combined with a low-carbon economy to prevent degradation of reef structures and associated ecosystem services.

Caribbean-wide decline in carbonate production threatens coral reef growth.

Global-scale deteriorations in coral reef health have caused major shifts in species composition. One projected consequence is a lowering of reef carbonate production rates, potentially impairing reef growth, compromising ecosystem functionality and ultimately leading to net reef erosion. Here, using measures of gross and net carbonate production and erosion from 19 Caribbean reefs, we show that contemporary carbonate production rates are now substantially below historical (mid- to late-Holocene) values. On average, current production rates are reduced by at least 50%, and 37% of surveyed sites were net erosional. Calculated accretion rates (mm year(-1)) for shallow fore-reef habitats are also close to an order of magnitude lower than Holocene averages. A live coral cover threshold of ~10% appears critical to maintaining positive production states. Below this ecological threshold carbonate budgets typically become net negative and threaten reef accretion. Collectively, these data suggest that recent ecological declines are now suppressing Caribbean reef growth potential.